Analysis of the Accuracy of the Springate and Fulmer Methods in Predicting Bankruptcy in Tourism, Restaurant and Hotel Subsector Companies in Indonesia

Authors

  • Lisa Alfarizi Ekonomi dan Bisnis
  • Zainal Zawir Simon Faculty of Economics and Business, YARSI University, Jakarta
  • Andri Gunawan Faculty of Economics and Business, YARSI University, Jakarta

https://doi.org/10.33476/jamer.v2i2.33

Keywords:

Bankruptcy, Springate, Fulmer, Accuracy

Abstract

The present investigation used the Springate and Fulmer methodologies to ascertain the bankruptcy rate of companies in the tourism, restaurant, and hotel industries that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) between 2017 and 2021. It is intended to be examined closely. The secondary data used in this study was gathered from the websites and financial statements of the companies listed in IDX. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, independent samples t-test, and inferential statistics were the data analysis methods employed. With an accuracy of 84 percent, Fulmer's method was found to be the most effective in forecasting bankruptcy, followed by his Springate method at 20 percent, according to the study's findings. We recommend that more researchers employ different bankruptcy procedures, look at businesses in diverse industries, and lengthen the study term

References

Alfadillah. (2021). "Lack of visitors, 1,033 hotels in Indonesia are permanently closed due to the pandemic." Travel Coil.

Ambarsari, Ratna. (2020). "Financial Distress Analysis using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Fulmer, and Grover models on Property and Real Estate Companies Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2016-2018 period." Thesis, Surakarta, Muhammadiyah University of Surakarta.

Ancol. (2021). "Affected by shocks during the pandemic, Ancol continues to survive with various strategies and prepares for company transformation." Ancol Corporate..

Arlita, Virda, Rosalia. (2020). "Comparative Analysis of the Altman, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski Models in Predicting Financial Distress and Their Review from an Islamic Perspective." Thesis, Jakarta, Yarsi University.

Azzahra, Qonita. (2022). "Contribution of the tourism sector to GDP 2017-2021". Alinea.id.

Fahma, Yoga, Taufan, and Nina D. Setyaningsih. (2019). "Financial Distress Analysis Using the Altman, Zmijewski, Grover, Springate, Ohlson and Zavgren Method to Predict Retail Company Bankruptcy", Asian Scientific Journal of Business and Economics, vol. 15, no. 2, 200-216. https://doi.org/10.32815/jibeka.v15i2.398

Febbianti, Y. (2022). "Analysis of the Financial Distress Model in Predicting Potential Bankruptcy in BUMN and Non-BUMN Companies in the Building Construction Subsector Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2014-2020 Period", Thesis, Pekanbaru, Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau State Islamic University.

Hanafi, Mamduh, M., & Halim, A. (2018). Financial Report Analysis (5th ed.), Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.

Hernadianto, Yusmaniarti & Fraternesi, (2020). "Financial Distress Analysis in Property and Realestate Subsector Services Companies Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange". JSMBI (Indonesian Journal of Management Science and Business), vol. 10, no. 1, 80-102. https://doi.org/10.32528/JSMBI.V10I1.3391

Isykharima, Alifya, Maulidina. (2021). "Analysis of the Accuracy of Financial Distress Prediction Methods as a Delisting Company Detector". Joint National Seminar on Social and Political Sciences. 92-102.

Kason. (2020). "Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy of Predicting Financial Distress Using the Grover, Springate and Altman Z-Score Models in Mining Companies Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2013-2017". MEA Scientific Journal, vol. 4, no. 3, 442-458. https://doi.org/10.29407/nusamba.v5i1.13526

Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. (2021). "Tourism and Creative Economy Outlook Book 2021". kemenparekraf.go.id.

Kristanti, Farida, T. (2019). Financial Distress theory and its development in the Indonesian context, Malang: Inteligensia Media.

Kusumanisita, A., Ika, and Istiana Mita Musdalifah. (2021). "Analysis of Bankruptcy Predictions in Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia Using the Fulmer Method for the 2010-2019 Period", Journal of Sharia Economics and Banking, vol. 7, no. 2, 135-144. https://dx.doi.org/10.29300/aij.v7i2.4634

Kusumaningrum, Trias, Madanika. (2021). "Comparison of the Level of Accuracy of Financial Distress Prediction Models in Companies Included in KANTAR'S 2020 TOP 30 Global Retails (EUR)", MEA Scientific Journal (Management, Economics and Accounting), vol. 5, no. 3. 1309-1327. https://doi.org/10.29300/aij.v7i2.4417

Laksmana, Komang, A., R., I., and Ayu Damarwati. (2019). "Analysis of the Accuracy Test of the Grover, Springate, and Zmijewski Models in Predicting Bankruptcy of Delisted Companies on the IDX". Master of Management Journal, vol. 8, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.29303/jmm.v8i1.355

Masdiantini, P., Riesty and Ni Made S. Warasniasih, (2020). "Financial Reports and Prediction of Company Bankruptcy", Scientific Journal of Accounting, vol. 5, no. 1, 196-220. https://doi.org/10.23887/jia.v5i1.25119

Mehta, C.R., & Patel, N.R. (2011). IBM SPSS Exact Tests. 2011, January, 1–236.

Mohammadi, Safiye. (2016). "Studying the Efficiency and the Power of Predicting bankruptcy of Firms Listed on the Stock Exchange Using Springate, Fulmer, and Zavgren Models", Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 7 no. 4, 124-130.

Munawarah. (2019). "Altman, Zmijewski, Grover, and Fulmer's Accuracy in Determining Financial Distress in Trade and Service Companies". OWNER Research & Accounting Journal, vol. 3, no. 2, 278-288. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v3i2.170

Norita. (2016). "The Analysis of Delisting Decision of Garment Companies Observed from the Aspect of Bankruptcy Prediction, Compatibility with Income Statement and Auditor's Opinion", International Journal of Organizational Innovation, vol. 9, no. 2.

Parquinda, Liana. (2019). "Analysis of the use of the Grover (G-Score), Fulmer (H-Score), Springate (S-Score), Zmijewski (X-Score), and Altman (Z-Score) Models as Bankruptcy Predictors (Study of textile and garment companies that listing on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2015-2017 period)”, Thesis, Malang, Brawijaya University.

Prihadi, T. (2013). Financial Report Analysis: Theory and Application, Jakarta: PPM Management.

Putri, N., K., Ayu, Rianita, and Desak NS Werastuti (2020). "Analysis of the Fulmer and Grover Model in Predicting Financial Distress in the Consumer Goods Industry", Accounting Student Scientific Journal, vol. 11, no. 3, 733-745. https://doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v12i1

Ulfah, H., Kurnia, and Abdul Moin, (2022). “Predicting Financial Distress using Altman Z-SScore, Springate S-Score and Zmijewski 1, no. 2, 159-169.

Downloads

Published

2023-01-05

How to Cite

Alfarizi, L., Simon, Z. Z., & Gunawan, A. (2023). Analysis of the Accuracy of the Springate and Fulmer Methods in Predicting Bankruptcy in Tourism, Restaurant and Hotel Subsector Companies in Indonesia. Journal of Accounting, Management, and Economics Research (JAMER), 2(2), 81–92. https://doi.org/10.33476/jamer.v2i2.33